The Biggest Loser.....Roche!
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The New York Times reported today that Genentech’s blockbuster cancer treatment, Avastin, failed to show a significant effect on preventing the recurrence of colon cancer, limiting its utility as an adjunct treatment to treat primary colorectal cancer. While Avastin is already a best-selling cancer treatment, success in this closely watched and highly visible clinical trial could have paved the way to a new uses of the drug, potentially increasing sales by billions of dollars a year.
Avastin had sales of $2.7 billion in the United States alone last year. But it is currently approved only for late-stage colon, breast and lung cancers. For those indications, patient’s lives have been prolonged for up to a few months. The new trial was designed to determine whether or not Avastin could be used earlier in the course of the disease, right after surgery to remove the tumor. The hope of such so-called adjuvant therapy is to prevent the cancer from coming back at all, effectively curing the patient.
While the Avastin failure will have little or no effect on Genentech’s financial outlook, it does call into question whether or not Roche paid too much last month to buy the 44 percent of Genentech it did not already own. Roche has long insisted that its desire to own all of Genentech did not hinge on the results of this trial. And yet, the trial appeared to play a major role in Roche’s months-long negotiations with Genentech. It appeared that Roche, which had started those discussions last summer, wanted to complete the deal before results of the Avastin trial were announced — on the assumption that a successful trial would have sent Genentech’s stock soaring, possibly putting the takeover price it offered out of reach. A failed trial, on the other hand, could have pushed down the value of Genentech’s stock. So it now looks as if Roche could have paid less had the results of the Avastin trial come out before it completed the deal.
Art Levinson, Genentech’s former CEO who played hardball with Roche over the course of negotiations, needs to be recognized for his outstanding business acumen. He and other Genentech executives convinced Roche that Avastin sales could quadruple, to $10 billion, by 2015 if the drug could be used for early-stage colon, lung and breast cancers. This possibility induced Roche to raise its bid for Genentech’s outstanding shares from $86.50 to $95 per share. Although Dr. Levinson wasn’t able to fend off Roche’s takeover and is no longer Genetech's CEO, he is likely “laughing all the way to the bank” as the expression goes. And, who said that PhDs aren’t any good at business?
Roche shares were down more than 10 percent on Wednesday, closing at $29.54.
Until next time...
Good Luck and Good Job Hunting!!!!!
