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The loss of over 200,000 pharmaceutical jobs over the past three years has been mainly driven by the anticipated loss of revenue from blockbuster drugs that will lose patent protection by 2013. While drug makers frequently cite blockbuster patent expiry as the reason for the need to downsize, they rarely provide the business and economic metrics, numbers and statistics that have influenced their decisions. 

Patricia Van Arnum, Senior Editor of Pharmaceutical Technology wrote a fascinating article in this month’s issue of Pharmaceutical Technology Europe that skillfully outlined the economic forces that are driving branded pharmaceutical companies to downsize and reorganize. According to the article, in October 2009 the pharmaceutical intelligence firm IMS estimated that the global pharmaceutical market is expected to growth 4-6% in 2010 and reach $825 billion. Market growth at an annual rate of 4-7% is expected to continue through 2013 and the size of global pharmaceutical market is projected to exceed $975 billion. The US pharmaceutical market, the largest in the world, is expected to drive much of this growth. However, the growth of the American market is only expected to be 3.5% in 2010. In market contrast, China’s pharmaceutical market is expected to increase by a staggering 20% per year and contribute 21% to the overall growth of the global pharmaceutical market by 2013. 

While prospects for the US market are better than originally anticipated, the loss of nearly $137 billion in revenues in 2013— because of patent expiry of blockbuster products—coupled with fewer new drug approvals are the factors that will limit the growth of the global pharmaceutical market to single digits through 2013 and likely beyond. Some of the drugs slated to lose patent protection by 2013 include Lipitor (atorvastatin) by Pfizer, Plavix (clopidogrel) by Sanofi-Aventis and Bristol-Myers Squibb and Seretide/Advair (salmeterol and fluticasone) by GlaxoSmithKline. Lipitor, Plavix and Seretide were the number one-, two- and foruth best-selling drugs in 2008 with global sales of $13.7 billion, $8.6 billion and $7.7 billion respectively.

The increasing growth of the generic pharmaceutical industry is best reflected in the concomitant growth of merchant active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) manufacturing industry. In the API world, there are two types of manufacturers; the so-called captive API producers or companies that exclusively manufacture APIs for finished, branded products and merchant manufacturers which are third party providers of APIs. Over the past four years or so, the growth of the merchant API market for generic products has substantially outpaced the growth of the API for innovator products. For example, from 2004-2008 the merchant market for generics grew at an average annual rate of 9.1% from $12 billion in 2004 to $17 billion in 2008 according to a recent report by the Chemical Pharmaceutical Association (CPA). In contrast, the CPA determined that the merchant market for innovator/branded APIs only increased at an average annual rate of 4.4% from $16 billion in 2004 to $19 billion in 2008. Looking ahead, the worldwide market for merchant APIs is projected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 6.8% through 2013 to about $50 billion. During this period, growth of innovator APIs is expected to be about 1.8% whereas the growth of generic API is expected to be a robust 11.4%.

The US is currently the largest market for generic APIs and consumed roughly 22.9% of the total global demand for generic APIs in 2008. China, which is the second largest consumer of generic APIs, consumed 19.2%. While the US is expected to remain the largest consumer of both innovator and generic APIs, China is projected to become the largest consumer of generic APIs in 2013 capturing a 26% share of the total generic API market (the US will be number 2 with 20.5% market share).

According to industry analysts, China, India, Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe (most notably Russia), represent attractive growth opportunities for generic APIs. India and China now account for roughly 25% of the global generic market and demand in these countries is expected to remain strong for the foreseeable future as the middle class continues to emerge. To that end, China is projected to have the highest average annual growth rate at 18.4% and India’s market will grow by 14% through 2013. Similar growth is expected for the Eastern European, Russian and Brazilian generic API markets.

While the economic size of emerging generic markets is still small compared with those of the US, Western Europe and Japan, it signals that generic drugs will likely drive the future growth of the pharmaceutical industry. The lack of innovation and rising costs of branded, prescription drugs in developed nations is the main driving force behind the rapid emergence of the generic drug industry. That said, is it any wonder why Pfizer is thinking about entering the generic pharmaceutical business and that Western drug companies are shedding scientists and sales people in the US and Europe and growing the sizes of their R&D and sales force staffs in Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America? Honestly, if I had any money left to invest, I would seriously be considering traded generic pharmaceutical manufacturers—their future success is almost guaranteed!

Until next time...

Good Luck and Good Job Hunting!!!!!!!

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Unlike many of my social media colleagues, I’m not attending the FDA public hearing taking place in Washington, D.C today (Friday the 13^th oh my). I wanted to attend and actually testify but I didn’t understand how the process works and blew my opportunity. However, I will be prepared for rounds 2 and 3 and beyond. I can assure you that this will not be the last public meeting organized by the agency to develop guidance for the use of social media in pharmaceutical marketing and advertising. 

The brouhaha over social media and its use in the life sciences industry is purportedly taking place because of the lack of regulatory guidance on the topic. While I agree that FDA needs to craft a reasonable regulatory policy for the use of social media for promotional purposes, the discussion taking place has little to do with the medium and everything to do with the fair balance of ads that are used to promote drug sales. For those of you who may not know, fair balance (in regulatory parlance) means that drug manufacturers are required to fully disclose in print, television, radio and internet ads the benefits as well as the side effects and risks associated with a specific product. Unfortunately, too often, drug makers tend to promote the therapeutic benefits of a drug but downplay its side effects and risks. This isn’t surprising because drug makers, like other for-profit companies, must sell as much product as possible to generate sufficient revenues to remain profitable.  And, as we all know, consumers and physicians are more likely to use or prescribe drugs that have therapeutic benefits without many side effects or risks.

Since the inception of direct-to-consumer advertising, FDA and drug makers have been playing a cat-and mouse-game with the fair balance issue. Most drug makers understand the “balance” that FDA requires for traditional promotional ads, but rather than abide by the rules, many choose to determine how far they can bend the rules before they appear on FDA’s radar. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that drug companies have adopted the same strategy when it comes to Internet advertising and search result ads. To be fair, FDA hasn’t crafted any definitive guidance on Internet advertising or search ad fair balance requirements. However, rather than apply what they have learned over the years about fair balance in print and television advertising, many drug makers chose to ignore fair balance requirements for Internet advertising simply because there are no written regulations or rules. To that end, 14 pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies recently received warning letters about their misuse of promotional drug ads that appeared with Google search results. FDA cited the lack of fair balance in the search ads as reasons for the warning letters. By issuing identical warning letters to 14 different drug companies, the agency was essentially saying “c’mon guys, who are you trying to kid—you ought to know better by now!”

Unfortunately, even when there are regulations, many companies spend hundreds of millions of dollars to look for deficiencies and loopholes that can be exploited to increase and improve drug sales. Therefore, I contend, that regardless of the social media guidance that FDA ultimately issues, drug and device manufacturers will continue to look for work arounds to regulations that they perceive hinder product sales.  

Social media is all about transparency, accessibility and communications between participants. The guidance that FDA issues about the use of social media in the life sciences industry will likely be circumspect and open to interpretation as it usually is. As one FDA legal expert explained to me, “FDA crafts the laws but it is up to the judiciary  to interpret how they ought to be applied.”

I suspect little will change until drug manufacturers realize that full disclosure and transparency, not half-truths and opaqueness, will ultimately lead to improved drug sales in the future.

Until next time...

Good Luck and Good Job Hunting!!!!!!!!

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Mark Senak who runs the EyeonFDA blog reported yesterday that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had launched a Twitter account. As Mark aptly points out, FDA’s unexpected leap into social media is ironic given that the agency has been steadfastly reluctant to craft any guidance whatsoever on the use of Web 2.0  technology or social media by drug and device manufacturers. Maybe, the agency was tired of being overshadowed by the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta, GA whose rapid adoption and use of social media for public health and related issues has been outstanding. 

For those of you FDA aficionados, FDA can be found on Twitter at @FDA_Drug_Info. Despite its very recent launch, the agency already has over 1,700 followers. Not surprisingly, FDA_Drug_Info is following only six individuals and is largely a one-way informational channel. Maybe somebody ought to tell the agency that social media, most notably Twitter, is suppose to be interactive and conversational? Also, couldn’t FDA staffers come up with a better Twitter handle? I mean the use of underlines to separate words in FDA_Drug_Info is so ......Web 1.0!!!! Finally, most of the information tweeted by the agency has to do with drug approvals, workshop announcements, safety warnings, etc. Maybe somebody also should tell them that most life sciences companies block Twitter and other forms of social media. Nevertheless, based on some recent tweets, it appears that the agency is targeting healthcare providers and consumers as their main audiences.

Despite FDA’s Twitter presence, I wouldn’t expect any Web 2.0 guidance or a drug and device social media policy any time soon. I say this because the agency yet to craft guidance on website design and Google Ads—two very ancient internet tools!!!! Maybe they ought to appoint a social media czar at the agency?

Until next time....

Good Luck and Good Tweeting!!!!

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There was another article in today’s New York Times lamenting the marketing practices utilized by drug companies to inform physicians about their products. While these practices may be troubling to legislators and the American public, everybody who works in the life sciences industry including regulatory agencies like the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) understands the “rules of the game” and how it is played. However,

over the past three years, there has been a full frontal assault on direct-to-consumer advertising and marketing and sales practices used by drug makers to hawk their products to physicians and the American public. This has largely been an over reaction to the lack of regulatory oversight of drug manufacturers during the Bush administration. The new regulations have severely limited what sales representatives can offer physicians e.g. gifts and free lunches and dinners, for more face time to sell their products. Consequently, the only means left available to drug makers to reach large numbers of physicians is marketing through medical education.

This is how it works. Companies annually budget monies to pay highly recognized physicians aka key opinion leaders (KOLs) to give lectures to physicians that might influence their prescribing habits. These lectures often take the form of informational seminars that focus on treatment options for certain therapeutic indications which often times subliminally highlight the advantages of the sponsor’s product over its competitors. Not surprisingly, the effectiveness and success of these programs is usually directly proportional to the sums of money invested in them. For example, in 2004, Forrest Laboratories (the subject of the NY Times article) planned on spending “$34.7 million to pay 2000 physicians to deliver 15,000 marketing lectures about Lexapro (an antidepressant) to their peers in one year.” The investment appears to have paid off; sales Lexapro reached $2.3 billion in 2008 even though a lower cost generic version of the drug is available. And, while the Forrest investment in medical education may appear to be a large one, it pales in comparison to the sums invested in medical education programs by much larger companies like Pfizer, Merck and others.

While certain members of Congress may be “shocked and outraged,” these practices are sanctioned by FDA. And, as long as drug makers are compliant and adhere to the rules they shouldn’t be faulted or penalized for their efforts. The point that I am trying to make is that drug makers, like all other for-profit entities, must maximize sales to generate sufficient profits remain in business. Therefore, it should come as no surprise to legislators or the American public for that matter, that drug makers use all legally available means to maximize the sale of their products. If Congress doesn’t like what drug makers are doing, then they ought to stop complaining and legislate changes to the rules. Put simply, it’s time for Congress to “put up or shut up.”

Until next time...

Good Luck and Good Job Hunting!!!!

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An article in today’s New York Times reports that several FDA scientists have accused the agency of granting market approval to several unsafe medical devices. According to published reports, “the House Committee on Energy and Commerce will investigate the accusations, first aired when eight agency scientists wrote a private letter in May to FDA commissioner Andrew von Eschenbach.”

Unfortunately, the allegations made by the eight scientists against the agency are nothing new. Frequently, agency managers (and sometimes political appointees) lean toward approving drugs or devices when the data pertaining to efficacy and safety are equivocal.

My sources at FDA suggest that this is what happened with approval of Merck’s ill-fated pain medication Vioxx.

Recently, there has been a spate of safety claims made against medical devices manufacturers. This is not surprising because the regulatory hurdles for marketing approval of devices are much lower for devices as compared with drugs and the medical devices and diagnostics business is the fastest growing sector in the life sciences. For an overview of the medical devices and diagnostics industry please read my recent article published in Science Careers.

Hopefully, new leadership at the agency will turn things around!!!!!!!

Until next time…

Good Luck and Good Job Hunting!!!!!!!!

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